Solar Future Studies

 The Solar Futures Study explores solar energy's role in the transition to an energy grid that is carbon free. It was developed through the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and published the 8th of September, 2021 the study reveals that, with aggressive cost reductions, policies that support it, and massive-scale electrification, solar power could make up as much as 40 percent of country's electric energy supply by 2035, and 45percent in 2050.

To reach these levels solar energy production will need to increase by at least 30 gigawatts alternate current (GWac) every year between 2025 and 2025. Then, it will increase upwards to 60 gigawatts annually between 2025 and 2030 -- four times its present rate of deployment, to reach 1,000 GWac solar power in 2035. In 2050, solar capacity will need to be 1,600 GWac for a carbon-free grid that is more electrified for the end-users (such like motor vehicle, water heating and building space). The preliminary modeling suggests that decarbonizing the whole U.S. energy system could yield as high as 3,200 GWac of solar energy due to the increased electrification of transport, buildings, industrial energy, as well as the production of clean fuels.

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This Solar Futures Study is the third of a string of vision research studies by SETO and NREL which was preceded by The SunShot Vision Study (2012) and On the Path to SunShot (2016). The previous studies were focused on the impact of solar technology that is low-cost in the economic sector, this one delves into the role that solar energy plays in a grid that is decarbonized and offers a look at the future of solar technologies as well as the solar workforce as well as how the solar power may be integrated with other technologies such as storage.

Key Findings of the Solar Futures Study

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• Thanks to the continuous advancements in technology the price of electricity will not rise until 2035. 95% decarbonization of the grid will be completed by 2035 with no increase in electricity costs due to the fact that decarbonization and electricity costs are completely compensated by the cost savings through technological advancements and improved demand flexibility.

• To achieve decarbonization, we need to see a dramatic acceleration of renewable energy deployment that could create more than 500,000-1.5 million people working in solar fields in 2035. In comparison to the 15GW in solar energy capacity installed in 2020, the annual solar capacity is around 30 GW average by the first half of 2020 and will increase to 60 GW from 2025 until 2030. Similar high rates of solar deployment will continue into 2030 and beyond. The rate of deployment is increasing for energy storage and wind too.

• Storage, transmission expansion as well as flexibility in generation and load are crucial for maintaining the grid's reliability as well as resilience. Storage capacity is growing quickly, and will reach more than 1,600 GW by 2050. Small-scale solar, when combined with storage, could increase resilientness by permitting buildings and microgrids to provide power to critical loads in the event of grid disruptions. Furthermore, improvements in the management of distributed energy resources, including rooftop solar or electric vehicles are needed to seamlessly integrate these sources into the grid.

• Expanding clean electricity supply yields deeper decarbonization. Demand for electricity is expected to increase by around 30% between 2020 and 2035, due to electrification of the fuel-based demands for building (e.g. heating,) as well as vehicles and industrial processes. The demand for electricity will increase by 34% between 2035 and 2050. In 2050, all of these electrified areas will be powered by zero carbon electricity and the increase in electrification leads to a reduction in emissions equal to 155% of the grid's emissions in 2005.

• The availability of land does not limit solar development. In 2050, solar ground technologies will require a maximum amount of land equivalent to 0.5 percent of the total U.S. surface area. This goal could be fulfilled through a variety of methods such as the use of affected or contaminated land that is not suitable for other uses.

• The advantages of decarbonization greatly surpass the additional cost. Costs for power systems in the period 2020 through 2050 is $562 billion (25 percent) greater, including the costs associated with serving electrified loads that were previously operated by direct combustion of fuel. However, the mitigation of climate-related damages and improved air quality are more than offset these cost increases, which resulted in the net saving of $1.7 trillion.

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  The challenges must be resolved to ensure that solar cost and benefits are distributed fairly. Solar installation can lead to jobs, lower power bills, and also increase energy resilience. Various interventions--financial, community engagement, siting, policy, regulatory, and resilience measures--can improve equity in rooftop solar adoption. Additionally, equity measures can be used to address the distribution of public or private gains, allocation of costs, the issue of procedural equity in decision-making related to energy and the necessity of an equitable transition of workforce, and negative externalities that may be linked to solar project site selection and disposal of solar-related materials.